Merck has lost around 14 percent in stock market value within a few days. The reason is a drastic reduction in Gardasil deliveries for China, after the demand for the vaccine, costing up to $550, has significantly dropped. The company has therefore withdrawn the previous sales forecast of 11 billion US dollars for Gardasil by 2030.

In its pharmaceutical division, Gardasil is the second most important product after Keytruda. In 2024, the vaccine is expected to generate around 8.6 billion US dollars and actually help compensate for the anticipated revenue drop when the Keytruda patent expires in 2028. The cancer drug currently accounts for about half of Merck's pharmaceutical sales and will then be subject to generic competition.

Merck has already explored the M&A market: In 2021, the company acquired the biotech firm Acceleron Pharma for $11.5 billion and Prometheus Biosciences for $10.8 billion in 2023. However, many attractive acquisition candidates have become scarce after years of intense consolidation, and other industry giants like AbbVie, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly are also seeking acquisitions to counteract the patent expiration of key blockbusters.

Another option could be new formulations and combination therapies. Merck hopes to protect Keytruda longer with a modified dosage form. An injectable version would have an advantage over potential IV generics when the patent expires. Additionally, the company's extensive late-stage program is considered promising—analysts at Bank of America see solid protection against future revenue declines here.